Friday, December 4, 2009

The real unemployment rate


Today, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy lost a paltry 11,000 jobs. With all the fanfare, you would have thought that there was some reason to celebrate. Far from it.

Sure, we're no longer losing jobs at the same pace as at the beginning of the Great Recession, but one in ten people in the labor force is still out of work. Of the 165 million people in the labor pool, that's 16.5 million people that are out of work that are looking for a job and just can't find one. But it's a lot worse than that... The Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn't count people who are employed in part-time jobs to make ends meet or people who are considered to be "discoraged job seekers" and have stopped looking for work altogether - presumably because any family of four can eat off of the $800 subsidy paid twice a month. Yeah, that is, if you like to feed your kids ramen noodles three times a day.

The reality is that our economy, and our labor market, is in shambles. The real unemployment rate is closer to 17.5% when you factor in all the people that have stopped looking or have taken on part-time work just to make a few extra bucks. That's another 12 million people that can't find suitable full-time work. At a "full-employment" rate of 5% unemployment, our economy would have about 8 million unemployed people. There's nearly 20 million more people unemployed than there was when our economy was at full employment a couple years ago. That's freightening.

So, what's one to do if they can't find full-time work or refuses to don the orange apron at Home Depot or the blue apron at Wal-Mart for 25 hours a week and no benefits? Well, many people have turned to eBay to sell there stuff. In the last year, the number of online auctions on eBay has more than doubled. The average daily auction volume in August, 2008 was 15 million auctions. In November, 2009 it was close to 35 million. eBay is as popular as ever because it's a great place for people to make some extra cash. People are selling their stuff in droves.

The unemployed and underemployed are also turning to direct selling and Multi-Level marketing companies in droves. Amway, Tupperware and Avon have all experienced record growth in the ranks of their agents/salespeople. When times are tough, Americans become ultra resourceful. Door to door selling is even making a comeback. Who would've thought? I guess if people aren't at a job, then they're at home, so why not...

Speaking of resourceful, people are also getting into the hospitality business. I recently counted the number of short-term rooms for rent posted on Craigslist. These are rooms for rent by the day - not by the month or by the year. These are people looking to make a few extra bucks by providing lodging services to travelers. I found that on a typical weekday there are more than 1,000 new ads posted for short-term rooms for rent. This is more than double the number from just a year ago. Craigslist lacks essential security features to make it a fully functioning lodiging classifieds site, yet people are willing to take the risk to make a few extra bucks by renting out their extra space to travelers.

Americans possess an unprecendented amount of unused space in their homes. Resourceful people all around the country are learning that they can monetize their unused living space by getting into the hospitality/lodging business. People are running make-shift B&Bs as a way to avoid foreclosure. Not a bad idea if you ask me...

Mint.com posted a humorous video that discusses the real unemployment rate on YouTube.

Russ Hearl
Head Sherpa & Co-Founder
Sherpa Travel Exchange, LLC
601 Van Ness Ave, Suite E-208
San Francisco, CA 94102

415-997-9925 Google Voice
russ.hearl@staysherpa.com
www.sherpatravelexchange.com

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